Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2018-2022
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This latest edition of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts covers the period 2018 to 2022 and is available in two volumes, both of which continue with the recognition of international visitor flows (as distinct from tourist flows) so as to give greater consideration to the much wider impact of tourism and tourism-related industries across destinations in the Asia Pacific region.
In addition, and in order to take future uncertainties into account over the forecast period, a series of interval forecasts is given, within which the baseline forecasts lie, as well as demand and price elasticities for select origin markets.
Key highlights of the 2018 edition which covers 40 Asia Pacific destinations, include:
• Aggregate annual growth in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) into 40 destinations across the Asia Pacific region is expected to be between six and seven percent in 2017, reaching a combined inbound volume of a little under 631 million
• This adds an additional 39 million international visitor arrivals to the aggregate count in the process, over the 592 million received in 2016
• By the end of 2022 it is estimated that more than 808 million IVAs will be received annually across these Asia Pacific destinations, suggesting an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of a little over five percent between 2017 and 2022
• Over this period, the AAGRs will vary considerably across each of the Asia Pacific regions, ranging from 5.6% for Asia, to 3.6% for the Americas and around 3.4% for the Pacific
• Within the Americas these AAGRs will vary from a low of 2.9% for North America through 3.8% for South America, and 5.1% for Central America
• Across Asia, the AAGRs will vary from a low of 4.9% for Northeast Asia through 6.1% for Southeast Asia, 8.4% for South Asia and 8.8% for West Asia
• The sub-regions of the Pacific are expected to show AAGRs of one percent for Polynesia, to 3.8% for Micronesia, four percent for Melanesia and 4.8% for Oceania
• Intra-regional flows remain very strong for the Americas and Asia, reaching 77% and close to 94% respectively in 2022. The Pacific is expected to see its intra-regional arrivals count drop to just over 29% in 2022 with well over half of the IVAs in that year coming from Asia (58.6%)
• Overall, the origin markets of Asia will account for 65.5% of all IVAs into this collective of 40 Asia Pacific destinations in 2022, an increase in its relative share position of more than 1.3 percentage points since 2017
This publication is provided in two separate volumes at one single price.