International Visitor Arrival Numbers Forecast to Increase Across Asia Pacific in 2022, Gaining in Strength to 2024

BANGKOK, February 15, 2022 -- Following on from the release of the Executive Summary at the end of last month, the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2022-2024 Full Report released today by the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) predicts annual changes in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across the region to turn positive versus 2021 IVAs under each of the mild, medium, and severe scenarios in 2022, with growth rates ranging between 126% and 84%.

The increase in the absolute number of international visitor arrivals is predicted therefore to range from 72.5 million to 175.7 million under the severe and mild scenarios respectively, lifting the total volume of visitor arrivals to between 159 million and 315 million, under those same scenarios respectively.

While it is a positive and welcome development after two years of extremely difficult conditions, the international travel and tourism sector of the Asia Pacific region still has much to repair and revitalise. The forecasted increases in inbound visitor numbers in 2022, for example, still only return them to 23-45% of the level of foreign arrivals received in pre-pandemic 2019.

Moving forward to 2024, IVA growth over the next three years is projected to be positive, with the volume of IVAs in 2024 being equal to, or better than that of 2019, under two of the three scenarios.

As noted by PATA CEO Liz Ortiguera, “Our latest forecast report numbers, based on data current as of November 2021 reviewed in conjunction with our recent research advisory panel updates provided on Jan 24, 2021 provide the definitive outlook for Asia Pacific visitor arrival forecasts. As noted by our panel, the effect of the Omicron variant is projected to have a small incremental impact for now with the key earlier assumptions still driving the forecast.”

“Equitable access and deployment of vaccines plus a practical risk-based approach to health and safety protocols in travel is foundational to not only the travel sector’s sustained recovery but to the overall global recovery from the pandemic. We share the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) view that the pharmaceutical sector must address barriers to access and affordability for all destinations. Furthermore, as acknowledged by the WHO, travel bans will not prevent international spread. Instead, travel channels should remain open with clear, practical guidelines as recently shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and WHO.”

“Destinations across Asia Pacific have been highly focussed on implementing health and safety measures. In parallel, various research studies and early travel patterns indicate a heightened consumer interest in a pivot to the right side of travel – longer journeys, more authentic experiences, and nature-based, wellness-oriented, and socially-conscious travel offerings are amongst the key trends for today’s travellers.

Destinations can expedite their recovery by staying top-of-mind with consumers, communicating requirements with clarity and consistency, and offering a sustainable, healthy destination experience,” added Ms Ortiguera.

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2022-2024 Full Report is now available at www.pata.org/research-q1v63g6n2dw/p/asia-pacific-visitor-forecasts-2022-2024-full-report.

What you will learn from this report:

• International visitor arrival forecasts for Asia Pacific between 2022 and 2024 by destination region, sub-region, and destination, highlighting changing demand preferences in the face of policy changes.

• Forecasts for 39 individual destinations by scenario allowing for the development of better recovery strategies for the post-COVID-19.

• Forecasts of travel demand from key source regions into each of 39 individual Asia Pacific destinations by scenario and by quarter and year.

PATA International members have exclusive access to the recording of the “PATA Visitor Forecasts 2022 to 2024’ webinar which included expert speakers from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Euromonitor International, and TCI Research. The speakers provided an overview of the forecasts for international arrivals to Asia Pacific between 2020 and 2024 as well as insights and analysis on Asia Pacific travel-related sentiment and consumer trends. For a copy of the recording, please contact membership@pata.org.